Venezuela: Taking a look at available data

If this isn´t the right time for Venezuelan (VZ) authorities and the international community to initiate a full-on reform and recovery program, then when? A quick look at VZ data.

- UNDP estimates USD 7bn of direct losses from the VZ earthquakes (7% of the IMF 2025 GDP estimate). History says the total impact could be 3x higher, excluding indirect losses. This is for a country that survives on remittances from 8 million or so people (around 30% of the population) that left the country in past years.

- The IMF resumed dealings with VZ on 16 Apr 2026, after a 7-year pause “due to government recognition issues”. It now holds regular talks with the government, in order to fathom where the economy stands. VZ is said to tap some of its USD 5bn of SDRs (providing another country will exchange those into hard currency).

- The last comprehensive IMF Article IV on VZ that provides in-depth analysis of a country´s economy was Sep 2004. VZ needs technical support and a return of experts in order to allow for basic economic analysis (and indeed much else).

- The IMF provides some country data and forecasts in its World Economic Outlook but these have to be taken with a pinch of salt (table below). The data coincide with those of the World Bank (sources: official & estimates)

- IMF data show VZ nominal GDP at a max of USD 373bn and GDP per capita at a max of USD 12,670 in 2012, vs. an estimate of USD 100bn and USD 3,740, respectively, in 2025.

- IMF WEO numbers very roughly imply total general government gross debt of around USD 170bn at end-2025 (using the end-year debt/GDP ratio, nominal GDP in local currency and the end-year FX rate quoted by the U.S. Treasury) or 3x nominal GDP in local currency

- Other data have shown USD 60bn of government + PDVSA debt in default and around USD 150bn in total debt including things like accrued interest and other claims. A latest govt report quoted by the FT shows USD 240bn worth of government debt, highlighting the unreliability of data. The govt wants to restructure its debt: big question is will the IMF do a DSA first?

- World Bank data on net migration show a total 5.3mn net outflow of people from Venezuela since 2005, with a largest annual net 1.4mn leaving the country in 2018

- Various data show VZ with the largest oil reserves of any country, at 300bn barrels. OPEC data show VZ annual oil output at 937K barrels per day (BpD) in 2025 & 1.07mn BpD in May 2026 (NatGas by-product also has potential). Rystad says: to keep these levels, an estimated $53bn investments are needed over 15yrs – they estimate $49pB break-even for Orinoco oil (in 2020) vs. $35 for Guyana oil & $45ish for Permian Basin (Bloomberg). Domestic refining capacity is estimated at 1.2mn BpD and some say VZ heavy crude could be mixed with Guyana lighter crude to refine.

Data sources: IMF, WB, Rystad, Bloomberg, FT, UNDP, Reuters, U.S. Treasury, OPEC