Dissecting the intersection of
Economics, Geopolitics & Financial Markets
With 99.99% of voting boxes counted, Abelardo de la Espriella wins with 49.66% of votes (12.96mn) vs. 48.7% (12.71mn) for Ivan Cepeda Castro. The rest are blank votes. Overall, considerably closer than opinion polls showed.
Official results: resultados.registraduria.gov.co/v2/resultados/0/00
- A shift from the left end to the right end of the political spectrum, with the country very split not only in terms of votes but also in terms of regional support.
- Indeed, with the exception of Bogota (52.5% Cepeda) and Cali (59.6% Cepeda), the chart below highlights a tendency for higher GDP per capita areas supporting Espriella and less densely populated rural areas supporting Cepeda.
- However, the tight national result does also highlight the clear split across the population, with Cepeda gaining 7.8%points and Espriella 5.9%points of votes over the first round
- Like in so many other countries, the electorate has pushed traditional establishment parties aside, in the hope for change, including tackling violence in the country
- Looking ahead: 1) markets would welcome a probable increase in fiscal and monetary policy credibility (including uninterrupted FinMin presence at Banrep board meetings), 2) oil production is likely to increase, with some estimates showing output doubling to 1.3mn barrels per day if shale is exploited, yet another worldwide supply boon factor, 3) US-Colombia relations are very likely to improve, possibly also providing a boost for positive changes in neighbouring Venezuela.
